Canada: Liberal Plurality Likely
My way-too-long analysis of the September 20 Canadian federal election.
Note: this article went on way longer than intended. If you want to skip to my final prediction, scroll down. If you want to hear my analysis but don’t care for my tendency to elongate the preamble, you should probably just go check out my YouTube channel.
Perhaps the most popular political myth that has been spread around online is the belief that the United States is a far-right country, and that the Democrats are simply a conservative party running against an even more conservative party in the Republicans.
This myth is easily debunked by the stark contrast between the two parties. The Republican party is against the legalization of gay marriage, against legal abortion, and against transgender youth playing sports alongside the gender they indetify with. Democrats are the polar opposite. They’re pro-legalization of gay marriage. They’re pro-choice. They’re in favor of transgender youth choosing the gender they want to play sports with. The two major parties in America are vastly different, and pretending they aren’t is an argument that isn’t worth spending time on.
Canada may actually be a better example of this, though. While I consider the US to be a pretty moderate country with both left and right wings, Canada is a different story. Canada is among the most progressive nations in the world, and even their Conservative Party is what I would consider to be moderate to left-leaning. (Remember that the definition of moderate varies depending on who you ask, but for the sake of this article, consider moderates to be what is considered the standard definition in America.) The Liberals are, certainly, more left-wing than the Conservatives are, but the gap is light years smaller than that between the Democrats and the Republicans.
However, for whatever reason, Canadians are increasingly against the Conservative Party. In virtually every poll I’ve seen, Erin O’Toole ranks towards the bottom of prime minister favorability, behind Jagmeet Singh, Justin Trudeau, and sometimes Yves-Francois Blanchet. (The Blanchet comparison is especially embarrassing for O’Toole, seeing as the Bloc are a party that really only exists in Quebec.) Liberal campaigns of the past have scared Canadians into thinking that the Conservatives are radical, and the result is usually successful. Whether it be Canada’s progressive identity or a lack of strong Conservative leadership, the Liberals have become the “default” governing party of the country, and have shifted the overton window much to the left.
2015 proved what happens when Canadians think that the Conservatives are too right-wing. They got wiped out all over, and Stephen Harper never led the party in an election again. They did much better in 2019, but it wasn’t a win by any means. In fact, Andrew Scheer was ahead of Justin Trudeau in many polls, and there was a lot of hype about a Conservative plurality in Parliament. Of course, Trudeau came back towards the end and the Liberals held on to a minority government. (This was despite the Tories winning the popular vote). But that left us with the possibility of a snap election since 2019, and I’m surprised Trudeau didn’t call it earlier. But anyways, I’ve written way too much preamble and background. I suppose I’ll start with the actual analysis now.
First of all, I want to talk about polling. Polls have been all over the place since mid-August, but most surveys show a narrow Liberal lead. This is good news for them. Unlike their left-wing counterparts in America, the Liberals can actually lose the popular vote while gaining seats. (The Democrats are very jealous, as in modern America they’ve got to win it by at least 3 to have a decent showing). But they don't want a narrow victory. They want a powerful mandate that will allow them to tout their majority until 2023. While polling doesn’t suggest a big win for the Liberals, it does look solid for them, and do remember that a) Canadian polls are much more accurate than American polls and b) if they are inaccurate, they tend to actually underestimate the Liberals (see 2019).
The biggest loser of this election won’t be the Liberals, even if they lose their plurality. It won’t be the Conservatives, even if the Liberal break 170. It’ll be the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc gained big in 2019, but 2021 looks to be a reversal of their impressive performance in the prior election. In the five latest surveys, the Bloc are at 6 (-2), 5 (-3) and lastly 7 (-1). Their best poll this entire campaign season has been them only losing a point of support, but when all of your votes are concentrated in one region, that one percent federally means a lot. I’m expecting the Bloc to get somewhere in between 5.5 and 6.5 percent of the vote federally, which translates to losses no matter what. If the Bloc gets 5.5%, they’ll probably end up with 10-14 seats in Parliament. If they get closer to 6, 15 might be realistic. Either way, though, they’d be way down from their current total of 32. There’s really no pathway for Blanchet to get more than 30 votes in Parliament.
The Greens also aren’t looking too hot. They actually gained a seat in 2019, but it’s likely they will lose one, maybe two, this year. Their party is a mess, and Annamie Paul lacks the popularity that Elizabeth May enjoyed within her party.
Now that we’ve talked about the Bloc and the Greens, let’s move on to what I would consider a key reason we’ve seen a Liberal surge in the polls: Maxime Bernier and the PPC. Both the PPC and the NDP are huge spoilers for the Tories and the Libs, but the PPC is really hurting O’Toole’s coalition this year. Despite losing his seat in 2019, Maxime Bernier is back, and his party is surging. Nanos has the PPC at 8 percent (higher than the Bloc!) while Mainstreet has them hitting 9. The vast majority of votes that the PPC is gaining is being taken from the Conservatives. The good news for O’Toole is that the PPC’s gains are expected to be in areas like Alberta and Saskatchewan, which are already deep blue so it won’t affect them too much. However, if the PPC gets a couple more votes in a few ridings in suburban Ottawa or in light-blue regions of rural Quebec, it could result in them losing a solid dozen of seats. For now, I’ll say the PPC will get 7% of the vote federally.
As mentioned, the NDP is the main spoiler for the Liberals, and it’s unfortunate for them because the NDP have the fourth-most seats in Parliament and received nearly 3 million votes in 2019. Jagmeet Singh is definitely the most well-liked leader out of the main six, but the common theme with those surveys is that a lot of the people who like Singh are Liberals who are okay with his views but will always vote red. There are also a few Conservatives who are fine with Singh but will never vote NDP. So despite Singh being the “most popular” potential prime minister in Canada, his party is highly unlikely to get close to a majority. But that doesn’t mean this election is bad news for the NDP - it’s quite the opposite. The latest weekend polls have had them soaring - Angus Reid’s got them at 20% nationally (+4), and Abacus and Nanos are projecting them to get 21% (+5). And lastly, while I know it might not be worth as much, both Innovative and Counsel have them jumping up to 22. Either way, we’ve reached the point where a “bad” poll for the NDP is them only receiving 17 or 18%, which is still a jump from their 2019 vote share. Monday looks to be a solid night for Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, and they’re definitely going to gain seats - mostly at the expense of the Liberals.
And now, the Conservatives. Where to start? I guess I’ll begin by giving them credit. They were left for dead when this election was called last month. They were in no position to give the Liberals a fight, but from late August to just a week and a half ago, they held a steady polling lead. Much to the dismay of many people, I do think that Erin O’Toole is a solid leader - he has the ability to appeal to moderate Liberals who weren’t fans of Scheer or Harper, but are okay with red Tories. O’Toole is the perfect, noncontroversial, and low-risk candidate that the Conservatives needed this snap election. The expectations for the Tories heading into this election was very low, and they’re already defying those projections.
That being said, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for the Conservatives. O’Toole has had a series of lackluster debate performances, and the Jason Kenney/COVID situation in Alberta is not helping them federally. Justin Trudeau has also made up some ground in the polls - his party was down 29-34 when September began, but the Liberals now have a narrow 33-32 lead. (For the record, winning 33-32 federally isn’t the worst thing ever for the Liberals anyways, seeing as they lost the popular vote by a point in 2019 but still held onto a plurality).
Lastly, the Liberals. Oh, the Liberals. Things would be so much easier for them if they abolished the FPTP voting system (first past the post) but instead they choose to keep talking about it instead of doing it. If they got rid of FPTP, they’d have this election in the bag. If Canada implemented RCV (ranked choice voting), Trudeau would be safe because nearly all NDP/Greens/Bloc voters would rank the Liberals second, and even a few red Tory Conservatives would as well. The Conservatives would benefit from this in like, three ridings in Saskatchewan and Alberta because of the PPC, but other than that it would be really bad news for them. But moving on to reality, the Liberals have not run a very strong campaign. As much as Justin Trudeau’s leather jacket is helping him win (that was a joke), this campaign should not have been competitive. Even noted Conservatives like JJ McCullough said at the beginning that this was a race they were not excited for. But thanks to Justin Trudeau’s dip in the polls and the general “why are we having an election again?” sentiment, this race has been an interesting one to watch, and I say this as an American who, just last year, experienced and predicted possibly the most chaotic election imaginable.
For lack of a better transition, I’ll just do my seat projections. In last place, I’ve got the PPC. They won’t win back any seats (no, not Beauce) but they will take away a couple votes from the Conservatives. Then we’ve got the Greens. They’re probably going to lose a seat, and my guess is that the odd one out is Fredericton (if that even counts), but it’s possible that Nanaimo-Ladysmith also flips if the NDP overperforms my expectations by a couple points in British Columbia.
As mentioned earlier, this election’s probably going to be a loss for the Bloc. Consider them to be the 2016 House Republicans. They’re going to hold on to plenty of their seats, but they’re in no position to flip any and they’re probably going to lose at least a couple. I’ve got them pegged for 26, but that number might vary a little on election night as it really comes down to whether swingy voters in Quebec City decide to vote for the Bloc again or come back to the Liberals.
The NDP will switch positions with the Bloc, officially becoming the third-largest party in Parliament when it’s all said and done. I’ve got them at 33 seats, which is a gain of 11. I do think that polling will overestimate them a little bit - they’re probably getting 20, maybe 21 percent of the vote, and this is even if Innovate or Nanos pulls them up to 23 on Monday. Their ceiling is probably 42 seats, and their floor is somewhere between 28 and 31.
My hot take is that the Conservatives will underperform expectations on Monday. Canadian polling usually underestimates the Liberals (funny how it’s the polar opposite in the US) and I just don’t think enough voters come out for them. It’s really close, and if they see a late surge in the GTA/Montreal, it really could be different. But for now I think they come painfully short in a lot of ridings - and I mean a lot, so that 1% they’ve lost over the past 2 days does matter - and they lose one seat overall. The Conservatives will, according to my projections, finish the night with 120 ridings in Parliament, which leaves the Liberal Party with the remaining 157 votes. This means that overall, the Liberals will net literally 0 seats, but it’s still the most ridings. Do remember that it is unlikely we see a coalition. To reiterate, the final tally is LIB 157, CON 120, NDP 33, BQ 26, and GRN 2. I’ll reiterate once again that if the NDP did not exist (or if the Liberals ditched the FPTP voting system) this election would be an easy majority for Trudeau. They are going to lose key seats to the Conservatives because of the NDP (Yukon, Cloverdale-Langley, heck, there are even a few seats in Calgary they could win if the NDP wasn’t a thing) but they still will, in all likelihood, win a plurality.
I really hope I’m not wrong. I paid minimal attention to the 2019 election (I didn’t have a channel at that time) and if I do indeed miss horribly here, it will indeed be a blemish on the election-prediction record I’m otherwise proud of. I’m also American, and this is the first article I’ve ever written about a country’s politics that isn’t my own, so hopefully I don’t end up looking too clueless.
Anyways, I’ll end it there. It’s 9:40 on a Sunday morning as I’m writing this, and football is going to start in 20 minutes, (Seahawks are winning today, btw) but here I am, writing about Canadian polling. I’m such a strange person.
See you next week.